John Howard will be tougher, more cunning, and intellectually miles ahead of his former leader, Alexander Downer. Hence he will be a more formidable presence in the parliament and will be, at least in the short term, a heartening force for Liberals and their supporters. ‘But can he win the next election?’ is the question that matters.
The NSW State election is a yawn. Both parties are struggling to excite the electorate. Really struggling. A note of hysteria is sounding in the rhetoric and propaganda in the campaign. This is especially so with respect to law and order. It is not certain, however, whether the electorate is paying much attention.
Conventional wisdom suggests governments lose elections rather than oppositions winning them. So, in considering whether John Fahey deserves to lose, it might be useful to dwell on the merits of his team, the “Fahey bunch”, as they are called in the ALP election jingle.
On election night an ebullient, relieved Bob Carr looked every bit the victor. John Fahey looked like he felt – exhausted and disappointed at the prospect of defeat.
Is Bob Carr just kite flying or is he serious about a revamp of federal-State powers? Last weekend the new NSW Premier agreed with the proposition that the States were becoming like branch offices of the Federal government.
It is remarkable how a former Minister with a poor understanding of the personalities and factions in the ALP, nonetheless could write the most perceptive account of Labor in power over the past decade.
Behind the details, program and hoo-hah about the White Paper on Employment is a vision about the future and a view about Labor’s past.
For those who think that ideas do not matter much, that the arcane debates within the socialist tradition are mostly irrelevant, the death two weeks ago of Alex Nove (1915-1994) will pass as something of little moment.
“Jumping Jack” Fahey is a good bloke. The polls show he is popular. But you can forget about him winning the next NSW election. It will not happen.
A light is dimming in Tony Staley’s mind that an outsider may be the best bet for the Federal Liberal Party leadership. This must now be reckoned a serious option even if the chances of its realisation seem remote.